Agentic AI, deepening regulatory divergence and the shift of financial crime risk earlier in the customer lifecycle are among the key trends Napier AI expects to shape financial crime compliance in 2026.
The predictions form part of the RegTech firm’s annual outlook, which examines how regulatory pressure, technology maturity and evolving criminal tactics are redefining AML strategies globally.
Last year, Napier AI’s forecast focused on three themes: the need for explainable AI, accelerating RegTech adoption driven by economic pressure, and the growing impact of regulatory fragmentation. Each of those trends materialised faster than expected, pushing compliance teams into a more demanding operating environment.
By the end of 2025, AI in compliance had crossed a critical threshold. Supervisors were no longer willing to accept opaque models, institutions moved beyond pilot programmes, and boards began questioning whether compliance investment was delivering measurable impact. Insights from the Napier AI / AML Index 2025–2026 reflect this shift, showing a global move towards accountable, responsible AI adoption.
Looking ahead, Napier AI expects those same forces to intensify in 2026, reshaping how financial institutions design, deploy and govern financial crime controls.
